Daily Forecast - Calling Direction/Peaks/Bottom

[tkasprzak]

Gentleman,

I have been a subscriber for a year now. My subscription is up for renewal as I write this.

As a financial advisor, I have been reading Harry Dent's material since the mid-1990s. I was present at a wholesaler's meeting when the AIM Dent Demographics Fund was launched to much fanfair. I was there when it was quietly closed.

I am still here.

That said, to whoever is responsible for the daily forecast, it's attempts at calling direction, peaks and bottoms, I find myself second-guessing my resolve.

Since the call to liquidate in August, I have watched the market edge up ever so slightly, just enough, and in a direction to fulfill one of the many possible scenarios of the day/week/month.

While I am NOT hoping for your calls to be fulfilled, for obvious reasons, I AM looking for affirmation. So far, the only affirmation I feel I have received is that enough possible scenarios have been offered to guarantee that one of your calls will be right.

While I understand that no one can accurately predict investor behavior, whether that be the institutional money manager, the rank and file 401(k) participant or the every day investor, including mom and pop, I am growing suspect.

At the moment, the current call is for the market "to go either way".

What am I to make of this wisdom and my pending decision to renew my subscription?

[jcberg]

As another subscriber up for renewal- I agree completely with your comments and concern. In fact I sold almost everything by late August - being painfully reminded that one cannot time the market reliably. I also note that the forcasts seem to waffle a lot. Looking forward to a response from the Dent staff.

[novaman]

I got out in mid September soon after HD's Sept. 11 update. Since then 2 of my largest holdings that I sold (aapl, goog) have skyrocketed- I've left close to 6 figures on the table.

[rbissman]

I have been with the subscription for only 4 months, but it has not gone well at all. I get the updates, and the calls have been all over the place. In the same week, Dent has said you should be out of the market or shorting, and then comes back in the same week and says the market might hit 11500. I have watched the market move about 800 points since his first call to get out of the market. You best read the material, and use it as a possibility. I do not think one direction call has been correct yet.

Very disappointed.

[sm01]

I've been an avid reader of the Dent material and subscriber for about 4 months now too. They always say "the trend is your friend", and the demographic trends seemed to point to the Dent urgent calls to sell all equities and begin shorting, which I started doing back in late July. I was also gullible enough to invest in UUP, and we all know how well that has worked out. Now I feel like I should have been following the market trends from which 90% of the other advisors were forecasting a significant rally. I too left six figures on the table and it feels like a gut punch. I'm holding my sinking short positions now only because those 90% other advisors are now suggesting caution......And I guess I still have a glimmer of hope that the Dent demoraphic trends are just a little late showing up to the party. Good luck to all of us!

[wazza]

I would not be relying on one opinion to guide my investment decisions. Although I have followed Dent's forecasting for over 10 years for my businesses and it has worked well. I agree that he is correct on many areas, however he is way off in others. Use his research as a base and also review other investor opinions and make an educated decision yourself.

Other investors that I follow have very successful track records however they have stayed out of the markets because of the uncertainty and manipulation of governments. I agree the major correction is coming but when??? who knows. The one thing that I do know is that government stimulus is not NATURAL economics and this extreme manipulation distorts all reasonable theories and outcomes. If anything it delays the inevitable, makes the correction even worse, and prolongs economic recover for many more years than it initially required. Look at the 30's, Japan, etc...

I prefer to use Dent as research and economic guides but then focus more on charting / elliot wave analysis / indicators, etc... to support my entry and exit points.

I like to have my risk as an active investor playing the short term game. Not a day trader but look for a position and place my stop-losses in place so that I can ride the short term waves up and down but get stopped out when they go against my long / short positions.

I know that I will never sell at the "top" or never buy at the "bottom" but I will ride a good portion of the movements up or down. On the flip side you can be wrong and lose, but with risk management techniques (stops, etc..) and proper analysis you minimize your losses.

At the end of the day if you win $3 for every $1 you lose you can still get a healthy return on your money....

Happy Investing

[Masa4065@yahoo.com]

Wazza, that was nice comments! I was amazed by many people disappointed so far. It seems that they follow e-mail alert and newsletters like the only advices we get. I agree with your view to see H.S.Dent newsletter as an economic guide! I also suggest all to read "Economist" magazine. For economics, those 2 are the major ones for me to read and many views are in the same direction. As an amatur investor, I like to keep the right direction into the medium term say, 1 year ahead instead of 2 days ahead. I also do Swing trading too say 3 days or so. Keeping our eyes towards a few years ahead give us more confidence in the right direction. As a Japanese living in Europa, I experienced the depression overthere and it is really terrible. My fathe never sold any of his holdings, guys since 1960s. Now, it is still 80% down. It was better investing in bonds for the last 50 years or so. Think about that! We are in a critical junction of tha last 100years or so. If it really happens, I am happy just keeping my cash and see, say GE at 2 USD. I am ready to grab it! If it is business, as usual after 2011 end. Then, just start investing my money just like a few years ago when I just started learning investment. I actually can not wait any major blue chips going to under 5USD. Can you imagine if you grab it, dividend after economic recovery can buy me many nice things. We may not have to work at all. Not even investment! Just let it run! We need this down turn. Let's pray that Dow will fall to 4000. Watch it smiling I do not care if it happens 2010 or 2011! I will wait with a cup of coffee! Until then, we should relax, and do not push too hard to make a few % profit. Risk is much bigger than the reward. If guys leaving 6 figures, you guys can make 7 figures in the end, if the forcast is right! The game is not at all over. Be patient! Try to learn other things to make amends!!! Come on! Stokc market is not all the investment! What about Properties! Other businesses? Many small companies should go down. It may be the time to grab other chances too. Peter Lynch wrote once, when the future looks dark, look at further future!!! There must be a chance! Safeguard the capital. We are betting agst Gov!! and Central banks!! Do you think they will let us win so easily. I doubt! It takes time. But, US Congress had it quite much by now with Debts. FED works for riches in US and UK. They print and print! My biggest concern is not bllody stock market. That is too small, but Deflation or Inflation. There will be not in between. That means, it can not finish just as usual. It ends with one of them. I am not so much covered for inflation. I can hardly get capital back with it, say if Oil goes up to 200usd, and Gold up to 5000USD. That is my worry for the further future. This kills my cash! Depression. Welcome so far. Everyone-Goodluck!

[dsmith9054]

I made the mistake of acting on the recommendation in the August newsletter and got completely out of the market for the first time in about 20 years. I've been tracking where my investments would have been had I stayed in. That figure is now closing in on $100,000. Dent's latest video now suggests that the market may well continue to go up through December and maybe into the spring. My biggest mistake was to purchase the last two books and believe he knows more than I can devine through my own research. I should have known better since his previous book predicted DOW 30,000.

[jamesy437]

Folks, the essential point to remember is that Harry Dent's area of expertise was and remains the LONG TERM forecasting of economic and stock market trends. This is how he made his name and, once this market takes another tumble as I'm confident it eventually will, he'll be the toast of Fox News and these forums will be full of people saying they never doubted him.

However, Dent's forays into the realms of short-term market timing have been extremely hit-and-miss. I've made it my business over the past few years to seek out genuine experts in this area and to educate myself in the dark arts of market timing, with considerable success. It can be done and don't let anybody fool you that it can't. There are many well-established, lesser-known or extremely esoteric indicators Dent does not use but which kept me out of trouble the past couple of years and guided me back in last March.

For what it's worth, some of these are beginning to flash warning signs. I'd suggest that a top of some sort will occur within a few weeks. It could just be an extended pause or something more ominous. It's simply not possible to say whether it will be THE top for this rally (I personally doubt it though the market doesn't listen to my opinion) but those of you who sold out earlier in the summer and are kicking yourselves should soon be able to stop kicking, at least temporarily.

The bottom line is this: both the 1930 US bear-market rally, 1938 rally and the Japanese Nikkei rally of 1991, the closest comparisons we have, peaked after retracing 50% of their prior losses. We are now close to those levels on the US indexes and I see no reason why, with the positive momentum still intact, they should not be hit on this occasion:

S&P500 1120 and Dow 10,320 are the critical levels.

We may go higher still, but anyone looking for an exit point could do worse than head for the door once these are reached. However, I'd strongly suggest that you DO NOT SHORT until the market has clearly broken down, as the momentum behind this rally is likely to mean there will be several attempts at a comeback once it begins to falter, so shorting too early could be a hazardous enterprise.

'Dow Theory sell signals' are a popular and reliable method of telling when the longer-term trend has finally reversed, so you could check the news feeds for that phrase or Google it periodically.

Otherwise, any free charting website will allow you to pull up the S&P500 and overlay a 200-day moving average. Once it turns down, the market will truly be living on borrowed time.

Good luck!

[yipcarl]

I'm surprised quite frankly that you, 'financial advisers' or anyone else for that matter thinks Dent is a God of some sort? Who can accurately predict any top or bottom in this completely manipulated market, are you serious, greedy, green, or all 3?

If you aren't awake realize our whole government and Federal Reserve is a manipulated Sham. Maybe you should read up on the Federal(not federal at all) Reserve. Markets move towards the inevitable in due time, until then stop whining about 'leaving money on the table and that Dent's predictions aren't right. Dent also predicted the Dow was going to 40k in the last boom. NO ONE is a Soothsayer and without Dent you would be even more lost I'm sure by these posts. Relax and handle your emotions. This market is a total sham and will collapse in due time.

I do however feel that Mr Dent should mention the obvious; that he is not a soothsayer and admit or explain a bit when he's wrong, that's all you can expect.