Will Harry reverse his call at some point?

[razorthin]

Cindy,
Last I was aware, the S&P is 25% or so banks and financial services. This group led the recent market rally and conventional wisdom says it will lead it back down. Remember it was the banks who benefited from the change in mark-to-market accounting rules. That toxic garbage is still rotting on their balance sheets. The business model of the banks is still broken. They could fake earnings because they received free money from the Fed to front-run the market and to keep bank stocks propped up about secondary offering prices. That shell game is a chicken that's gonna roost.

[novaman]

I just read an interesting article about Michael Alexander, who also follows stock cycles.

According to Alexander, the big crash that occurred in 1932 correlates with the Dot Com burst in 2002, and the decline at the end of 1937 correlates to the big crash of 2008. So, according to Alexander, we are in the period that parallels 1938 and onward....this means HD could be off- way off on his prediction, because they already happened.

[WS1@JUNO.COM]

The chicken may roost in 2 years from now. "Being right" after missing a 60% rally, does not mean a thing. What is important is yearly return of a strategy. So far, over the last few years HD did terrible.

[travelntraveler]

I like what Dent had to say for his October video update. S&P is still hanging on. I believe the market is trading side way for awhile then it will most likely to go bull again until mid 2010 to end of 2010. The old Dent's market prediction was off by 1 year. With his new updated info, I think he is reversing his call.

[dpmasucci@aol.com]

He has us selling at Dow 9300, buying at Dow 10300. Thanks. At this rate I won't have anything left. This was a $10000 subscription for nothing. I think Harry is selling snakeoil these days. It sounds good in the newsletter but the reality is that he is waaayyy off the mark.. Don't tell me to dump stocks and go short and then have me buy 10% higher. I don't have the guts to do that here anyway. Harry's predidctions stink. He has till March of next year for this market to crash. If not he is done in this business.

[travelntraveler]

I got out of the market on Nov 11 (for about two weeks for now); i'm still watching out for the crash warning for the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th quarter of 2010, especially in the 4th quarter though.

[travelntraveler]

The bull is back (i'm back in the market today (11-16) until next year). I believe I don't see a crash anytime soon, at least not in march 2010.

[travelntraveler]

Time to get out of the market.

[dverenes@bellsouth.net]

When Harry made his sell call, I went to cash. But I kept 33% in the game through mutual funds in natural resources, gold, China and the agriculture futures ETF...DBA. I'm glad I did that. Since starting this thread, I slowly began to move my cash back into the market. By the end of October, I was down to 50% cash. Last Friday, I deployed just about the rest of my cash back into the market. I now only have a 3% cash position.

I think eventually, Harry will be right. I just don't know when. It could be years before it happens. I just hope that when it happens, it happens slowly so that I can move back to the sidelines without being hurt too bad. I hope I'm smart enough to see that.

The government is going all out to avoid any depression. The question is whether it will work. Government spending to fight World War II got us out of the Great Depression. But Japanese spending in the 1990s and 2000s has not gotten them out of their deflation problem. So, it's anybodies guess as to whether we will come out of this financial crises. My guess is that the government is making things worse. That's why I think Harry will eventually be proven right.

But I do disagree with Harry about inflation. I think we will have a slow economy as Harry predicts. But I also think inflation will be out of control...stagflation, but worse than in the 1970s. The government printing presses worldwide are guaranteeing inflation. Time will tell.

[novaman]

So what now???